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FIFA World Cup: How Australia and the Socceroos can progress

Australia loved watching the thrilling Socceroos FIFA World Cup 1-1 draw with Denmark last night that keeps our progression hopes alive.
But what are the scenarios now? What do we need to do and what results need to go our way?
The Socceroos play Peru in Sochi on Wednesday and Denmark has a crucial clash with France. We break down all the scenarios for you:

The Socceroos lose or draw against Peru

Game over. Only a win would see us progress

Denmark draws with or beats France

That would be terminal as well. We need France to beat Denmark for us to be a chance

The goal difference the Socceroos need

Heading into the final round, Denmark has a goal difference of +1 and Australia has a goal difference of -1.
So we need a two-goal turnaround. If Australia win 1-0 and Denmark loses 0-1, then we will both finish with an equal differential.
Australia would go through in this scenario because we would have scored more goals overall than Denmark.

If the Denmark and France game becomes high-scoring, that's where things get tricky. Because even though they may lose, Denmark could pump up their total goals. If they lose by one goal in a high-scoring match (3-2, 4-3 etc) then Australia is going to need to make up those goals against Peru.

The tiebreaker scenario

There is one extreme situation where splitting Australia and Denmark could become difficult.
If Denmark loses 2-1 and Australia wins 1-0 both countries would be level on points, goal difference and goals scored.
Fair play comes into the equation here, with yellow and red cards meaning points are deducted. Australia is currently ahead on this metric, but we can't afford ill discipline against Peru or it could cost us in a tiebreaker situation.

About the Author Josh Alston

Josh Alston is a hack with over 12 years industry experience, covering sport across all codes for newspapers and online agencies. Known to frequent grade matches because of their cheap tinnies. Eventually graduated with a Bachelor of Journalism and a Masters in sitting on the hill when the local cricket side was playing. Softball premiership winner, rugby league legend in Year 10 and no stranger to Doomben Racecourse.

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